In this article, you will learn the most recognized approaches and methods to make production forecasts in lean manufacturing and lean six sigma.
Production forecasting means to estimate the future demand of a particular product or services with the purpose to make the planning, scheduling, and coordination to provide it.
The Top 4 Methods to Make Production Forecasts: es of Production Forecasts
1. Trend Production Forecast
The trending forecasting is based on a steady trend. If the production capacity increase by X percent per month for the past two years, then the forecast of X percent increase for next month.
This method of Forecasting is appropriate and accurate when the demand and supply are somehow flat, stable, and predictable.
2. Pattern Production Forecast
Pattern Production Forecasts are useful when existing a pattern over time or seasonal. Once you can predict the monthly changes, you can make a more accurate forecast.
Since patterns are often seasonal or related to other forces, such as the weather. You may have to consider how to balance the high production seasons with the low production seasons to stabilize your manufacturing operations.
This method requires the evaluation of pattern in the production levels over the past several years, to predict the forecast that the pattern will repeat in the coming year. A predicted pattern that can be repeated and repeated again over time is called a “cycle”.
3. Cycles Production Forecast
Cycles are longer-term variations based on the economy and other factors as weather, holidays, etc.
This method considers the evaluation at the beginning of each cycle to determine which shall be the demand over the next cycle(s) based on the demand on the past cycle(s).
Since the variations in each cycle depend on many factors, they are usually covered-up on shorter-term variations. Therefore, for monthly forecasts, consider these off-set variations to the trends and patterns to get an accurate cycle estimate for demand and the required production levels.
4. Inventory Production Forecast
This method is the most typical and easy to implement. Since the production forecast is focused exclusively to make a replenishment in your inventory levels. It is a simple and rustic method but does not consider other factors that may affect your inventories eventually as trends, patterns, and cycles.
Everything starts with a minimum level of inventory required to meet short-term demand variations.
Then. if the inventory is too high, your production must be lower until inventory has decreased to the desired level.
In the case of high inventory, consider a planned drawdown of inventory and a correspondingly lower level of production.
Some companies use the excess inventory to reduce production to a steady level that represents an efficient use of their facilities.
For more information about the most common types of manufacturing forecast, click here
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